Who is investing, why now, and what signals define the next 6-24 months?
The four largest hyperscalers are on track to spend $650-700 billion on capex in 2026. Combined, they're burning through 90% of operating cash flow - and borrowing the rest. The AI buildout has moved past what retained earnings can fund.
Hyperscalers Debt is the new capex fuel
Amazon's free cash flow is projected negative. Meta's could drop 90%. Alphabet issued a 100-year bond. This buildout is no longer funded by earnings - it's financed.
Forecasting Analysts keep getting it wrong
Wall Street forecast 19% capex growth in 2025. The actual number was 64%. The same pattern is repeating. Consensus is structurally behind.
Revenue Gap Infrastructure far outpaces revenue
OpenAI ended 2025 at ~$20B ARR - a fraction of the spend deployed on its behalf. Every major model company is still losing money.
Sovereign Capital Gulf funds are moving fast
SoftBank, Mubadala, PIF. Total capital entering AI infrastructure annually is approaching $1 trillion. Not all of it is patient.
Supply Constraint $80B in Azure orders unfulfilled
Microsoft disclosed $80 billion in Azure AI orders it cannot fulfill due to power constraints. The limiting factor is no longer capital or compute. It's grid access.
Circular Risk Nvidia investing in its own customers
Nvidia put $2B into CoreWeave - a company that buys Nvidia chips. The pattern is drawing scrutiny. The question is whether it holds under investor pressure.