Where is power actually available, and who controls access to it?
Power is the binding constraint on AI infrastructure - and it's getting tighter. The average U.S. grid interconnection timeline has grown from under two years in 2008 to nearly five today. In California, some projects wait nine. The grid wasn't built for this.
Queue ProblemMost projects never get built
Over 70% of interconnection requests submitted between 2000 and 2018 were withdrawn. Only 14% of requested capacity was ever built.
Load GrowthPJM is projecting 5.3% annual growth
For a mature grid, that's structural acceleration. CenterPoint reported a 700% increase in large-load interconnection requests between 2023 and 2024. Texas is feeling it first.
Grid BypassDevelopers are going around the grid
Behind-the-meter generation — primarily gas, increasingly fuel cells — is projected to account for 35+ GW of data center power by 2030. Crusoe owns 4.5 GW of gas generation outright. The DATA Act would exempt off-grid data centers from FERC oversight entirely.
NuclearEveryone's answer, nobody's reality
Oklo targets 2027. Google and Westinghouse plan 10 reactors starting 2030. Three Mile Island is restarting for Microsoft and Meta. But no SMR has delivered commercial power to a data center.
Cost AllocationRatepayers are absorbing the bill
PJM ratepayers across seven states absorbed $4.3 billion in 2024 solely to connect data centers. Monthly power prices jumped as much as 267% in some areas between 2020 and 2025. Dominion proposed its first base-rate increase since 1992.
Policy FightWho pays is now a political question
Utilities evaluate new loads against worst-case assumptions, triggering upgrade costs — and the question of who pays is a live political fight in multiple states. The FERC rulemaking due April 2026 will set the terms.
"Transmission is our number one constraint - one utility quoted us a twelve-year evaluation timeline."